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How to Use Our Long-Term Trade Alerts (Complete Guide)

How We Caught a 500% Winner

Hey there,

Today, I want to show you exactly how to use our long-term trade recommendations. I'll use AppFolio (APP) as an example—one of our biggest winners that's up over 500%.

(That means a $10,000 investment would be worth $60,000 today!)

Let me break down how we spotted it and, more importantly, how we rode it to massive gains.

Understanding the Four Market Stages

First, let's understand why our alerts work. Every stock MUST be in one of these four stages:

  1. Stage 1: Basing (where we alert you to buy)

  2. Stage 2: Advancing (where we make our money)

  3. Stage 3: Topping (where we start to get cautious)

  4. Stage 4: Declining (where we stay away)

Our long-term alerts focus on finding stocks transitioning from Stage 1 to Stage 2. This is where the biggest moves happen.

Stock market stages

How Our Long-Term Recommendations Work

When we send you a long-term trade alert, we're typically spotting a "Base 1" pattern:

  • A massive 16+ week consolidation

  • Multiple tests of the 30-week moving average

  • Signs of institutional accumulation

  • A strong company showing potential for huge growth

APP Daily Chart

Two Ways to Trade Our Alerts

Let me show you how subscribers traded APP:

Approach 1: Keep It Simple

  1. Enter when we alert Base 1

  2. Hold through Base 2

  3. Exit when stock closes under 10-week or 30-week moving average

Example with APP:

  • Invested $5,000 at Base 1

  • Stock rose 300% into Base 2

  • $5,000 grew to $20,000 without any extra work

Approach 2: Add to Winners

  1. Enter when we alert Base 1

  2. Add more during Base 2 (after stock proves itself)

  3. Hold until exit signal

Example with APP:

  • Started with $5,000 at Base 1

  • Added $10,000 during Base 2

  • Position grew even more as stock continued higher

APP Weekly Chart

Understanding Stage 2 Movement

During Stage 2 (the advancing stage), a stock will typically form multiple bases:

Base 1: The Perfect Entry

  • Longest consolidation (16+ weeks)

  • Where we love to enter

  • Clearest risk/reward setup

Base 2: Still Very Trustworthy

  • Great for adding to winners

  • Good for new positions if you missed Base 1

  • Usually shorter than Base 1

Bases 3,4,5: Proceed with Caution

  • Less reliable than earlier bases

  • Higher risk of failure

  • I personally prefer to be out by this point

  • Better to find fresh Base 1 setups in new stocks

Two Ways to Handle Profits

  1. The Simple Approach: Use the 30-Week Moving Average

  • Hold your position as long as the stock stays above the 30-week moving average

  • Exit when it closes below this level

  • Pros: Clear rules, less emotion, catches bigger moves

  • Cons: Gives back more profits in corrections

  1. My Preferred Method: Sell into Strength

  • Take profits as the stock shows excessive strength

  • Often sell after Base 2

  • Pros: Locks in profits at higher prices

  • Cons: Might miss additional upside

Example with APP: Those who held through the 30-week MA are still in the trade Those who sold into strength after Base 2 locked in 300%+ gains

Which Approach Should You Choose?

Both work well - it depends on your style:

  • Approach 1: Better for busy people who want simplicity

  • Approach 2: Better if you like to actively manage positions

Start Using Our Alerts Today

Want to catch the next APP? Get our long-term trade alerts and start building real wealth in the market.

Trading Success,

Valentine

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